Australia no longer face a do-or-die outcome in their Rugby World Cup clash with England – but it’s close enough.
Wales’ failure to secure a bonus point in their 23-13 win over Fiji on Friday – much like the Wallabies in their opening fixture – means Michael Cheika’s men will almost certainly get a second bite at the apple regardless of the outcome at Twickenham on Sunday.
The Wallabies, though, can’t afford a blowout loss.
As it stands, Australia sit on nine competition points – four behind Pool A leaders Wales.
With four points for a win, one dished out for a loss by seven points or fewer and another bonus point on offer for scoring four or more tries, the Wallabies control their own destiny.
Should the Wallabies lose to England by seven points or fewer, they would still progress to the quarter-finals with a victory over Wales – as long as the Welsh don’t pick up two bonus points in defeat.
A heavier loss to England would require the Wallabies to either secure a four-try bonus-point victory or one by greater than seven points against Wales.
England still face certain elimination – and the indignity of being the first World Cup hosts knocked out in the pool stages – should they lose to Australia.
England have had the wood on Australia at recent World Cups, winning the 2003 tournament with a Jonny Wilkinson extra-time field goal over the Wallabies before causing a major boilover to defeat them in the quarter-finals four years later.
But Cheika insists the chance to exact revenge for those losses isn’t weighing heavily on the Wallabies.